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Is a housing crash coming?
No.
A really good article came out of HousingWire this past weekend. It included a lot of charts, including one of them below. All were pointing to the surprising strength of homeowners despite some hot takes on social media or YouTube. A crash is simply not in the cards, however hopeful one may be to buy property or make a move at lower prices. First and foremost, you simply can't fight supply and demand dynamics. There is just not enough homes on the market or due to come on the market unless something crazy happens and a flood of two million homes magically pop up for sale. Beyond that, foreclosures and bankruptcies are still below pre-pandemic levels, homeowners and buyers of homes have strong FICO scores, credit delinquencies are below pre-pandemic levels, and we are currently hovering at the lowest percentages ever of homeowners underwater. Another fun fact, 40% of homeowners don't even carry a mortgage. Check out the image below. Remember a couple months ago when the news and others were ringing the alarm bells about the all-time highs of consumer debt?...Well, yeah, alerts can be deceiving. American wages have actually been outpacing inflation.
We will continue to monitor all of this, just don't get your hopes up for dramatically lower prices.
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