We have entered into the seasonal summer slowing of the housing market. If you made note of the Market Update graphic from last week, we saw that from June to July, active listings went up, pending sales went down slightly and closed sales dropped a bit. There was also a small increase in sellers' price reductions. This can be sellers' beginning to get uncomfortable with their homes sitting longer than the average DOM (Days On Market). Mortgage interest rates are king, and what they do matters. They are greatly affecting affordability. This will be another big week of economic data that can affect bonds and rates in either direction. We have the Fed's FOMC meeting later today. The expectation is another .25 bps hike to the fed funds rate. This seems to be already priced in, so the language they use for future rate hikes will be important. I will be watching closely. My thing is...they paused hikes in June, every inflation metric except for unemployment is pointing down, so what exactly is The Fed trying to prove? Why do we need a job loss recession when all inflation indicators are pointing down? I personally would prefer a continuation of the pause, wait and evaluate approach. I've got some irons in the fire for Q3, so let me know if I can help you as well! What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com
|