Welcome to October!  Q4, Halloween and the final run into our presidential elections. 
We get our first week started off with a bunch of monthly job reports.  If you remember from last week, I stated we will most likely need to see some weakness in economic data in order to get a deeper move down on mortgage rates.  The problem is weaker economic data like the job reports this week means that not enough jobs were added in September, or a larger than expected move in people filing unemployment claims.  I am definitely not rooting for others to lose their jobs or not get hired so that interest rates can go down further, but as things sit that is how I am seeing things moving forward.  The reason being is the Fed made their jumbo .50% cut.  The market was ahead of the cut, and now will be reacting to economic news in one of two ways, either the Fed needs to cut more (weakness), or the Fed nailed it and more cuts are not needed at this time (strength).  To drive it home, we will be looking at weakness to predict more rate cuts, and strength/growth to predict less rate cuts.
We saw a 1.44% increase to WoW purchase applications last week.  The YoY purchase applications are now positive at 2.35%.  It is widely surmised that buyers were holding off a couple weeks ago to see how much further mortgage rates would go after the Fed's decision.  Well, as you know, mortgage rates basically did nothing, in fact they actually went up a bit and are now stagnating.  So, buyers more than likely realized and were advised by their mortgage officers to not expect to much more of a drop and it is safe to submit their application leaving behind any FOMO.  For all my current homeowners, refinance applications are up 232% YoY!

I personally am starting to get more inquiries on the listing side of things in the last week.  It is never too early to start preparations, and I encourage anyone thinking/considering/hoping of buying or selling in 2025 to start now.

See you next week!
 

What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com
Visit www.paulpelettarealtor.com