Weeeeeee!
If you've been riding the 10yr yield roller coaster with me then your straps should be tight and your hands should be up.  We have officially breached back below 4.20%.  No surprise to the readers of this fine newsletter, but 30yr mortgage rates consequently are now approaching 6.50%.  We are seeing these moves almost like magic right before...SPRING;  imagine that.

I watched a real good video from one of my favorite real estate gurus on social media, and pulled an image from the video to share here.  It's a very good image to help display what states could be in for some pain this year, and which ones are just simply not at risk of a major housing reversal.
 

This map is a look at the difference in inventory from pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (widely considered normal, ideal levels) and now, February 2025.  The lighter colors headed towards blue and especially any positive numbers like Texas, Florida and Tennessee are indicating they have HIGHER levels of inventory then six years ago...not good.  At least, not good for sellers, it is indicative of a buyers market in those areas and possibly steep housing price correction.  Here in CA is a much different story.  We are sitting at -26% across the whole state.  This means we are still 26% short of what would be considered "normal" inventory levels.  In other words, as of now, not at high risk of a major housing price reversal.  Specifically looking at Sacramento County, we are still registering a strong sellers market.  If we pair this with dropping mortgage rates then Spring season in Sacramento should/could be a doozy.  As always at the beginning of the month we do have the major economic job reports, so I'll be watching closely for you.  

What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com
Visit www.paulpelettarealtor.com