I mentioned last week was packed with lots of economic jobs data.  The data that came out could be confusing and it definitely affected the bond market, which as a reader of this newsletter, we know to watch the 10yr bond yield.  The 10yr bond yield is closely tied to the 30yr mortgage rate.  As the 10yr increases, so will the 30yr rates.  As it decreases, so we will see mortgage rates decline.  The jobs data sent yields through the 4% mark, and thus mortgage rates cleared above 7%.  The data was confusing because the ADP report which tracks private jobs showed a huge surprise to the upside, which is not what the Fed wants to see.  However, the JOLTS report which measures job openings showed a decline in available job openings.  Majority of those jobs from the ADP report were hospitality jobs (airlines, hotels, restaurants).  Jobs that we sorely needed to be filled.  My interpretation is a portion of the population is finally starting to press to find work, and are starting to accept the generally lower paying hospitality jobs as covid year savings begin to run dry.  This tells me we may finally be nearing the top of the 10yr bond yield range, and you guessed it, the 30yr mortgage rate range.  Of course, we are going to continue to watch every week and assess.
With that said, buyers continue to surprise everyone accepting these higher and higher mortgage rates.  The supply side remains historically constrained.  You can see in the MLS monthly report below, new listings across majority of counties are down, but the pending sales continue to rise.
Impressive indeed.

What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com