Sacramento Market Update 2.1.2023

    The local and national market is picking up.  Activity is increasing around Sacramento.  I've been warning of this for some time.  If looking to buy, but waiting for "the crash", the numbers and data just do not support anything like it at this time.  Reasons being:  Supply is decreasing further, sellers simply aren't providing new listings and those that have been sitting or are priced correctly have been bought up.  Buyer demand is heating up, mortgage applications are showing life.  Price reductions are decreasing, yes, decreasing.  In fact, on a national level there has been 2.4% price increases and that number is rising.  What does this mean?  As of now, the numbers are showing that we are sustaining these current housing prices.  Affordability is still an issue, which is still keeping a portion of buyers on the sideline.  However, if we see that mortgage rate break of 6%, watch out.  FOMC is going on today, and the Fed's decision on the next interest rate hike will be delivered later today.  We'll see if that shakes things up or not.With that being said, I will be doing my part to provide supply to our market.  We'll have a listing going live on 2/9/23, and hopefully I'll have good news from another listing appointment later this week.Have a great first week of February!What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com

Sacramento Market Update 1.25.2023

View this email in your browser     Mortgage purchase applications have been picking up over the last few weeks, up almost 25% now week over week.  As you can see, buyers are starting to thaw out and begin their search for Spring.  I will expect to see one more week of low activity and new listings next week, but I anticipate those numbers to heat up beginning in February.  This will coincide with the number of purchase applications we see starting to turn into active buyers.  Applying for a loan and getting prequalified is not a one day process unless you already have a relationship with a lender.  Typically for someone first starting the pre-approval process it can take a week or two.  Everyone has busy lives, documents and statements need to be tracked down, applications and answers to questions need to be figured out and calculated.  If you are someone interested in starting a home search this Spring, the time to start the process is yesterday.  There is nothing worse than prematurely starting a home search, finding the ideal home, contacting your agent to write up an offer, and realizing you can't submit the offer without the pre-approval letter, OR even worse, you aren't as qualified as you thought.  Even if Spring shopping isn't your thing, but you know you are interested at some point this year or even next year, getting pre-approved now would be highly beneficial.  Yes, the pre-approval letter will expire in six months, but two things: 1. You now know your price point to search 2. If you aren't happy with that price point, you can now take the necessary steps to improve upon that home price you want to afford.  It could be any number of things, but most likely paying off debt, asking for that raise or finding other sources of income.If you have questions, please ask.  I have access to amazing lenders that will be more than happy to guide you, whether it's for two weeks from now or two years from now.What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com

Sacramento Market Update 1.18.2023

    Last week's CPI (Consumer Price Index) came in at  estimates, showing another consecutive decline in the inflation numbers with more room to go.  Shelter inflation (rent payments and owner equivalent rents are measured) which accounts for 32.77% of the CPI is usually the slowest mover and laggard of all the other baskets.  Rent numbers have shown signs of cooling nationally, so it would be fair to expect inflation numbers to continue easing.  Rents and home prices do not move in tandem. If mortgage rates break 6% as we expect, buyer demand should come back and depending on supply at the time could help home prices rise a bit.  Just because home prices come back up does not mean that rents have to come up as well.  It's not a 1 to 1 movement. Let's take a look locally.  Home prices have come down to accommodate the lack of buyers.  Homes that are mispriced at their original list price are closing lower and sellers are often giving buyer incentives to close the deal across the board.  Active listings are down 19% MoM, which is further shown in the months of inventory at 1.8 months, down from 2.3 in November.  Funny enough we are still technically considered to be in a seller's market very simply due to the available homes for sale being so low.The article of the week is backing up exactly what I've been saying for at least eight weeks now.  A break lower of 6% mortgage rates could set us up for an active Spring locally.  Are you looking to take advantage?What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com

Sacramento Market Update 1.11.2023

View this email in your browser     First and foremost, I hope everyone is safe and doing okay after these storms this passed weekend and ones still to come.  If there is anything at all that I can do for you, please reach out.  My physical labor skills are unmatched.  Handy, technical skills not so much, but give me a task like moving furniture or breaking down a fallen tree and it'll be done.As we look at the market, it remains quiet, as expected to start the year.  Nationally, active listings are close to breaking under 1 million, which would be crazy.  Inventory is low nationally and locally. These first two weeks are absolutely the slowest, but I expect to see mortgage applications begin to pick up after this week.  This would be in line with typical Spring activity build up, lasting through May.  Mortgage rates are beginning to do their part, as you can see below, ticking closer to conventional rates of 6%.  A break lower than that and we'll be cooking.  Tomorrow is a pretty big day in that regard as it is CPI day.  I will be watching closely.  A CPI print at estimate or even a surprise lower will show a third consecutive month of decreasing inflation.  This along with the slowing of YoY wage growth from last week will assuredly bring mortgage rates down.  If we surprise higher, well, it would be quite unfortunate as we more than likely will remain stuck in a holding pattern.  No man's land 6.25% - 6.75%.  I don't even want to think about rates back over 7%.What are you seeing or hearing? I'd love to know paul@guiderealestate.com